10 Propositions on climate change policy (actually two lots....)

10 very likely things for the next 20 years:

Mankind will do much less about climate change than it believes it should
The West will do what is cheap and convenient to mitigate or adapt to climate change
The West will to some extent decouple economic growth from carbon emissions
Western climate change policy won't do much to reduce carbon emissions
Developing countries will put economic growth well ahead of climate change action
Carbon emissions will continue to rise dramatically for 20 years
The poor in the south will suffer more than the rich in the north
If the US starts to suffer from climate change, dramatic action will ensue
Even quite dramatic policy will turn out to have little effect on the climate change problem
We will find out what cimate change is like because we won't have controlled carbon much

10 NOT very likely things for the next 20 years:
The climate may quickly get out of hand and scupper economic growth
Cheap and convenient policy may bring carbon emissions under control
Mankind may get a huge climate fright and plunge into dramatic and effective climate action
The climate may change in a way which is not at all serious
The West may divert sufficient resources to give developing coutries a low-carbon growth
Masses of Westerners may soon decide to seriously reduce their carbon footprint
Westerners may suffer enough from climate change to care about it
Wars and other disturbances may force the world economyto avoid oil and gas consumption
Clean coal may quickly become cheap enough to become the fuel of climate change choice
Renewables may become quite cheap and convenient

What flows from this?
That man is a greedy, clever, adventurous and irresponsible soul who is fairly content to take big risks if the costs are going to borne by the unborn - whom he knows have always managed pretty well anyway.